Fill in the canvas in order, and above all do not touch the success criterion once the test has started. Write the result block only after the test has finished; anything you write before that is a prediction.
01
Hypothesis
The testable assumption the experiment should support or refute. Write it as 'We believe that [who] [what] because [why]'. An experiment without a clear hypothesis produces no lessons, only activity. Keep the hypothesis on the canvas word for word, even if you later have to admit it was wrong.
Questions that help
- ·Which specific assumption are we testing here?
- ·Who exactly does the assumption apply to?
- ·What would show that the assumption is wrong?
Example
We believe that visitors to a pricing page with three tiers (instead of two) choose the middle tier more often, because the middle tier now gets framed as 'the best'.
Common mistake
Formulating a hypothesis that is too broad or too narrow; either makes evaluation impossible.
02
What We Test
Describe the intervention itself, concretely and completely. Which version sits next to which? What is the copy, the design, the price, the channel? What does the flow look like for a test participant? Enough detail for someone to reproduce the experiment exactly in six months' time; otherwise it is not an experiment but a one-off observation.
Questions that help
- ·What exactly changes between the variant and the control?
- ·What does the user flow look like?
- ·Which variables do we deliberately keep constant?
Example
Variant A (control): two tiers, Basic at €29 a month and Pro at €79 a month. Variant B: three tiers, Basic at €29, Pro at €79 with a 'Recommended' badge, and Team at €149. The page is otherwise identical.
Common mistake
Varying too much at once (colour, price and copy). Afterwards you do not know which element made the difference.
03
What We Measure
The main metric that judges the hypothesis, plus one or two guardrails that stop a 'win' on the main metric from doing damage elsewhere. Higher conversion on the pricing page is no win if churn doubles three months later. Ideally choose metrics that directly measure what you want to know, not proxies.
Questions that help
- ·Which metric directly judges whether the hypothesis holds?
- ·Which metrics must stay the same so nothing gets damaged?
- ·How do we measure: which tool, which event, which definition?
Example
Main metric: conversion to the Pro tier per page visitor. Guardrails: the 30-day retention rate of new Pro customers, and average support time per new customer.
Common mistake
Choosing a metric that is sensitive to chance with small samples, for example 'number of upgrades to Enterprise' when you only have 100 visitors per variant.
04
Success Criterion
The threshold, fixed in advance, that decides whether the hypothesis is confirmed. Make it statistically defensible: a difference that falls within the noise is not a difference. For A/B tests this is often a minimum effect plus a confidence level (for example 95%). For exploratory tests, a concrete threshold ('at least 25 demo requests in 14 days').
Questions that help
- ·Which outcome on the main metric do we consider confirmation?
- ·What is the minimum detectable effect with our sample?
- ·What is the minimum time the test must run?
Example
Success criterion: Pro tier conversion in variant B is at least 20% higher than in variant A, at p<0.05 over at least 4,000 visitors per variant.
Common mistake
Not setting a threshold, or setting one that you later 'adjust to what turned out to be achievable'.
05
Result
Fill this in only after the test has finished. Write down all the relevant numbers: sample size, duration, main metric per variant, guardrails, and any segment differences that stood out. No interpretation, no 'it worked' or 'shame', only the factual outcome. Add context about how it ran: odd seasonal effects, tool outages, a bug that was fixed halfway through.
Questions that help
- ·What is the factual outcome for each metric?
- ·How large were the actual sample and duration?
- ·Which external factors could have distorted the picture?
Example
Duration 16 days, 4,327 visitors in variant A, 4,298 in variant B. Conversion to Pro: A 7.2%, B 9.8% (+36%, p<0.01). 30-day retention still unknown at the time of reporting; support time identical.
Common mistake
Mixing result and conclusion, or summarising the result 'optimistically' with rounded numbers.
06
Lessons Learned
What this experiment teaches you about your business, your customer or your market, whether or not the hypothesis was confirmed. A 'failed' experiment is often the most instructive: it teaches you that an assumption is wrong. Write the insight here in full sentences, not just the number. Good lessons carry over to other experiments and decisions.
Questions that help
- ·What do we know now that we did not know before the test?
- ·Which assumption within our hypothesis was specifically confirmed or refuted?
- ·What carries over to other experiments?
Example
Three-tier pricing works for our audience, even with a higher absolute price for the middle tier. The 'Recommended' badge probably plays a bigger role than the fact that there are three tiers; a follow-up experiment will isolate that.
Common mistake
Just repeating the outcome ('it worked!') without saying what it really means.
07
Next Step
Based on what you have learned, what is the next concrete action? Roll it out to all users, design a follow-up experiment, redesign and retest, or drop the idea. Make it concrete: who does what, by when? Without a concrete follow-up action, the lessons stay on paper.
Questions that help
- ·Scale, test further, redesign or stop?
- ·Who takes the next step, and when?
- ·Which assumption do we want to test next?
Example
Next step: roll out three-tier pricing to all new visitors within 7 days. In parallel: experiment B2 to vary only the Recommended badge. Owner: the pricing PM, deadline: 22 April.
Common mistake
Not defining a next step and closing the canvas with 'we will evaluate later'.